MMA

UFC 261: Odds, prediction, betting trends for Kamaru Usman vs. Jorge Masvidal 2

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There's two key bets to look for pertaining to the main event of UFC 261.

The next major MMA event takes place on Saturday night, with UFC 261 live from the VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena in Jacksonville, Fla.

The main event features welterweight champion Kamaru Usman battling Jorge Masvidal.

As always with a UFC event, there are certainly plenty of bets to be made. Let's take a look at some of them.

UFC 261 odds for Usman vs. Masvidal 2

Kamaru Usman: 2/9
Jorge Masvidal: 7/2

(All odds via Unikrn)

Unikrn has Usman installed as a massive favorite — as of Thursday, he comes in at -400, meaning you'd need to bet $400 to win $100. Meanwhile, Masvidal is a +310, meaning if you pluck down $100, you will win $310. Money isn't moving in either direction as the odds have remained the same since the week began.

Usman and Masvidal met a little less than ten months ago at UFC 251, with the former retaining his title via unanimous decision. Masvidal took the fight on less than a week's notice after Gilbert Burns tested positive for COVID-19. In the aftermath of UFC 251, Masvidal felt if he had more time to prepare and get in a full training camp, the result would have gone differently.

It appeared a rematch wasn't going to be in the cards as Usman had stopped Burns in the third round at UFC 258 and Masvidal looked to be heading towards a fight with Colby Covington. Everything changed when Usman called out Masvidal to run it back. Masvidal wanted it and, most importantly, UFC president Dana White.

Kamaru Usman vs. Jorge Masvidal 2 prediction

Muehlhausen's pick: Kamaru Usman
Best odds: Jorge Masvidal to win by KO/TKO, DQ: 4/1

It's hard to see how the rematch plays out any differently than what everyone saw at UFC 251. But there is a path for Masvidal to win, and it can be done.

Not having shed 20 pounds in five days and having an entire training camp for the rematch helps Masvidal tremendously. The way Masvidal wins is to do what he did when he smashed Darren Till, Ben Askren, and Nate Diaz to become the BMF champion at UFC 244. If Masvidal keeps the foot on the gas pedal, stays inside Usman's space, and stuffs Usman's takedown attempts, then it's his fight to lose.

But that's going to be hard to accomplish against the reigning 170-pound champion. Usman has been unstoppable. He's riding a 17-fight winning streak, with the last 11 coming inside the Octagon. The Nigerian is entering the conversation of all-time greats at 170 pounds with three consecutive title defenses, winning two of those inside the distance.

The name of the game for the champion has been his wrestling. In his first title defense against Colby Covington and the fight with Burns, Usman has added a diverse striking attack led by a stiff jab which set up the stoppages over them. Usman will have to mix everything up as he can't stand toe-to-toe for 25 minutes with Masvidal. He's playing with fire if he attempts that strategy.

Masvidal has too many obstacles to overcome to capture UFC gold for the first time, while Usman has too many tools in the toolbox. He won't get the stoppage he desires, but what he'll do will be enough to retain the welterweight championship.

Unless you have an absurd amount of money or found money inside your couch cushion, it isn't worth plunking down any cash on Usman. Masvidal is a deadly striker and can finish the fight as Usman has been dropped, as evidenced by the Burns fight when he got dropped in the opening minutes, but Burns failed to seize the opportunity. If Masvidal sees blood, he will attack like a shark, and that is worth putting some money down "Gamebred" winning via stoppage.

More Usman vs. Masvidal 2 odds