The renaissance of Canada’s men’s national team faces its biggest test on Thursday night, as John Herdman’s side takes on Mexico in the semifinals of the 2021 CONCACAF Gold Cup.
It’s been an impressive run through the biennial championship for the Canadians, with a 1-0 group-stage loss to the United States — a game in which fans and pundits on both sides of the border believed Canada was the better team — the only blemish thus far.
But after thoroughly dominating traditional CONCACAF power Costa Rica in the quarterfinals, the Canadians now take a massive step up to face the Mexicans.
Tata Martino’s men are favoured to once again win the whole thing — Mexico’s been crowned Gold Cup champions eight times during the modern era of the tournament, and 11 times if you include results from the pre-Gold Cup CONCACAF Championship — and even the improved version of Canada should be considered the underdog on Thursday.
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Despite a renewed overall outlook, Canada has plenty of reasons to head into the semis expecting to lose. For one, the Canadians are missing their best player (Alphonso Davies, who's also the best player in CONCACAF), their three best strikers (Jonathan David, Cyle Larin and Lucas Cavallini), their two most experienced midfielders (Atiba Hutchinson and Scott Arfield), their No. 1 goalkeeper (Milan Borjan) and two potential starting centre backs (Steven Vitoria and Scott Kennedy).
Secondly, Mexico will essentially be playing a home game at Houston’s sold-out NRG Stadium.
That leaves a relatively inexperienced, largely second-choice lineup against the giants of CONCACAF in an unofficial road match in the 72,000-seat venue.
However, if anything defines the Herdman era of the #CANMNT it’s its “next man up” mentality. While there are several notable absences, there are still many key pieces from which the coaching staff can choose.
With that in mind, here are three things Herdman and Canada can do to beat Mexico:
Bring back the box
It’s been over 21 years since Canada has beaten Mexico in a senior men’s competitive match, but that dry spell pales in comparison to the 34 years between Canadian victories over the United States that famously ended in Toronto in October 2019.
In that 2-0 victory, Canada employed a “box” midfield, with Samuel Piette and Mark-Anthony Kaye (replaced early by Liam Fraser) sitting in front of the back line while Arfield and Jonathan Osorio lined up ahead of them. Davies and David were given the freedom to wreak havoc up front.
The 4-2-2-2 worked to perfection against a shell-shocked American side that simultaneously couldn’t win the midfield or deal with the energy that Davies and David provided in attack.
Obviously the personnel would be different against the Mexicans on Thursday, but a return to the box (with Piette partnering potential tournament MVP Stephen Eustaquio while Osorio and Kaye play further upfield) would provide added protection for an undermanned back line while taking advantage of Canada’s wealth of skilled central midfielders against a team that looks to win the possession battle in every match versus CONCACAF opposition.
“We need to dominate these teams,” Eustaquio said after Canada’s 2-0 victory over Costa Rica. “That’s what’s going to give us the power to beat Mexico, to go to the final and win the Gold Cup.”
As bold as Eustaquio’s words are, Canada’s aforementioned 21-year winless streak against the Mexicans started after a Gold Cup knockout-round fixture between the two sides back in 2000.
The soccer gods could decide that this is the week that the skid ends.
Play the Tyler Pasher wildcard
One of the more intriguing names included in the Canadian squad list is Tyler Pasher, the 27-year-old debutant who’s in his first year with Major League Soccer club Houston Dynamo.
To say Pasher’s a late bloomer is an understatement — the Elimira, Ont., native looked a surefire bet to break through as a teenager out of the Toronto FC academy a decade ago, but instead he took a circuitous route to MLS, with stops in Finland and lower-division teams throughout the U.S. before finally earning a starting job this season in Houston.
A pacy winger with a penchant for shooting from distance, Pasher has tallied three goals and three assists in eight games (seven starts) with the Dynamo, and has shown an ability to strike with both feet and deliver a dangerous cross from either flank.
Even so, he’s only seen 29 minutes in two substitute appearances in the Gold Cup thus far. It’s hard to disagree with Herdman’s selections given how the team has progressed, with breakout star Tajon Buchanan claiming the lion’s share of the minutes out wide alongside Richie Laryea. But given the forced absences of Cavallini (suspension), Larin and Ayo Akinola (injury), a re-think of the attack may be needed.
Pasher and Buchanan starting up top together, flanking either Tesho Akindele or Junior Hoilett, is a decent option against a Mexican side whose strength isn’t found in the wide areas.
Given both Pasher and Buchanan’s ability to play either side, the flexibility of starting the Dynamo star in the city where he finally broke through may be tempting to Herdman and Co.
Keep things consistent
This is probably the most boring option, but it’s also the likeliest to happen.
Canada has employed a 3-5-2 throughout the tournament, ostensibly to take advantage of Buchanan and Laryea’s threat on the flanks (and to fully unlock the powers of Davies, when he’s healthy and available in World Cup qualifying).
It’s worked wonders, with Buchanan dazzling and Laryea providing his usual standard of work rate, guile and unpredictability. There’s no real reason to fix what ain’t broken, even with Cavallini and Vitoria out due to yellow cards picked up against Costa Rica.
The probable course of action is for Herdman to simply plug Akindele and Doneil Henry into Cavallini and Vitoria’s spots, respectively, and hope that the team chemistry isn’t upset too much.
While it isn’t the sexiest option, both potential replacements are veterans who know the job expected of them. Akindele, in particular, is in a fight to earn a spot in Herdman’s squad when qualifying for Qatar 2022 resumes in September, so a positive showing by the 29-year-old against the region’s powerhouse would go a long way toward pushing him up the ever-growing ladder of Canadian attackers.