Canada's incredible run through the qualification tournament for Qatar 2022 has brought the team to the verge of joining the biggest teams in the sport.
The Canucks can book their spot in the World Cup as early as March 27 with the right results. It would be just the second time a Canadian side has qualified for a men's World Cup — and the first time since 1986.
To understand how the team got here requires a look at the complete picture of CONCACAF's qualifiers. Here's how the qualification process works and what Canada needs to do to cement a berth in the biggest single-sport event in the world:
How does World Cup qualifying work in CONCACAF?
The region known as CONCACAF represents North and Central America and the Caribbean nations. Thirty-four eligible nations entered CONCACAF's qualifiers for Qatar 2022, with Saint Lucia withdrawing from the process before the games got underway.
First round
The first round of qualifiers involved teams ranked sixth through 35th, according to FIFA's world rankings as of July 2020. The teams were drawn into six groups of five, with Canada (then ranked 73rd in the world) the top seed in Group B. Suriname, Bermuda, Aruba, and the Cayman Islands rounded out Canada's group.
First-round games were played between March and June in 2021, with both of Canada's home games played in empty venues in the United States due to COVID-19 restrictions on foreign nationals entering the country. The Canadians went perfect through all four games, scoring 27 goals and allowing one.
Second round
The six group winners from the first round were immediately paired off for home-and-away matches played in June 2021. The Canadians drew Group E winner Haiti, traveling to Port-au-Prince for the first leg before "hosting" the Haitians for the second leg at SeatGeek Stadium in Bridgeview, Ill.
On June 12, a Cyle Larin tap-in in the 14th minute gave the Canadians a 1-0 victory in the Haitian capital. Larin scored again three days later as Canada stormed to a 3-0 win, giving the team a 4-0 aggregate victory.
Third round
The eight-team round-robin tournament that is currently underway, this is the final step before the World Cup.
Featuring CONCACAF heavyweights Mexico and the United States, along with Costa Rica, Jamaica, Panama, Honduras, El Salvador, and, of course, Canada, the "Octagonal" will decide three of the region's 3.5 spots at Qatar 2022. The fourth-placed team will face the top side from the Oceania Football Confederation in a last-chance intercontinental playoff in June 2022.
Heading into Matchday 13 (of 14), the Canadians are in first place, having posted seven wins, four draws and a loss through 12 matches.
What does Canada need to do to qualify for the 2022 World Cup?
This is, by far, the closest a Canadian team has come to playing in a men's World Cup since 1997, when it was most recently involved in the final round of qualification. In that tournament, Canada finished in sixth place of six teams, with just one win and a -15 goal differential over ten games.
Fortunately, the current edition of Canada's men's national team is much better. Sitting atop the final qualifying group, John Herdman's men are within touching distance of a formal invite to Qatar.
Leading the eight-team final group with a three-point cushion ahead of Matchday 13, Canada can secure a World Cup berth as early as March 27 in Toronto against Jamaica.
To qualify for Qatar 2022 on March 27, Canada needs:
- Canada win or draw vs. Jamaica
OR
- USA draw or loss vs. Panama
OR
- Costa Rica draw or loss at El Salvador
Any one of the above results need to happen on March 27 for Canada to officially book its place in Qatar on that day. If none of the scenarios materialize, Canada will still have the final matchday (March 30) to clinch a spot.