The Kansas City Chiefs have their sights set on an unprecedented three-peat that would cement their status as one of the greatest dynasties in NFL history.
Fittingly, the Chiefs must first overcome the challenge of beating the Buffalo Bills in the playoffs – a feat they have managed three times since 2021.
As the Bills prepare to avenge those postseason losses to the Chiefs, DAZN News breaks down three key factors which could prove decisive in the matchup.
Patrick Mahomes vs. Josh Allen
(Getty Images)
It would be reductive to suggest that quarterback play will solely define the outcome of this game. However, as the driving force behind each team’s success, we cannot overlook how crucial Allen and Mahomes' performances will be in this matchup.
Mahomes’ efficient performance proved decisive when the two teams met in the 2024 AFC Divisional playoffs. He completed 17 of 23 passes for 215 yards and two touchdowns, earning a quarterback rating of 131.6.
Despite his heroics as a runner, Allen failed to complete any deep balls beyond 20 yards and finished with an 86.1 quarterback rating after managing only 186 yards on 39 passing attempts.
Although Mahomes has failed to replicate his regular-season success in previous years, he saves his best performances for the postseason and excels late in the fourth quarter when the game is on the line.
The Chiefs’ field general also owns a 3-0 record over the Bills in the playoffs, and that will surely provide Mahomes with a psychological edge.
Bills’ pass rush vs. the Chiefs’ offensive line
Getty Images
The Bills’ defense must produce at a high level to secure a win against the Chiefs, and it starts with making Mahomes feel uncomfortable in the pocket.
Unfortunately for Bills head coach Sean McDermott and co., the defending Super Bowl champions have an advantage in this matchup.
The Chiefs have had trouble with pass protection this season. In 2024, they allowed the 16th-most sacks among all NFL teams after allowing the second-fewest in 2023.
However, Buffalo’s pass rush has been unable to produce consistent pressure, or sacks, in 2024.
The Bills have managed only two sacks in their two playoff games this year and ranked only 20th among all teams with 39 in the regular season.
They pressured the Chiefs 13 times in their Week 11 dress rehearsal, but Kansas moved perennial Pro Bowler Joe Thuney to left tackle since that loss.
Travis Kelce and the Chiefs’ receivers vs. the Bills’ secondary
Cooper Neill/Getty Images
Travis Kelce remains a matchup nightmare for opposition teams. He’s too big for opposition defensive backs, and even at 35 years old, he still has the speed and certainly the savvy to beat linebackers in coverage.
Kelce’s production dipped in 2024, as he finished the regular season with ‘only’ 823 yards and three touchdowns. Still, much like Mahomes, he raises his game when it matters most.
Look no further than his seven catches for 117 yards and a touchdown in the Chiefs’ Divisional Round win over the Houston Texans for evidence.
The Bills’ defense features some talented players in coverage, such as slot cornerback Taron Johnson, and they limited Kelce to only two catches in Week 11.
Buffalo will also hope that Matt Milano's presence—who missed that earlier season matchup—will further benefit a defensive unit that led the NFL in takeaways.
However, Mahomes is adept at spreading the ball to multiple receivers, including speedster Xavier Worthy, so the Bills defense as a whole must be on top of their game.
Conclusion
Allen and the Bills offense have the talent to overcome any NFL defense, but success in this game depends on their ability to exercise the ghosts of former losses to the Chiefs in years past.
Each team possesses a rushing game capable of helping to put the game away if they find themselves up early, but the Bills must start fast and build an insurmountable lead, mindful of the Chiefs’ tendency to win close games late in the fourth quarter.
However, as one of the most successful head coaches in NFL history, the Chiefs’ Andy Reid will undoubtedly look to define a game plan that takes advantage of the matchups above.
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