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Mixed Martial Arts

UFC 264: Odds, prediction, betting trends for Dustin Poirier vs. Conor McGregor 3

Liam Happe
UFC 264: Odds, prediction, betting trends for Dustin Poirier vs. Conor McGregor 3DAZN
Their series is tied at one apiece, but who has the bookmakers' favour heading into the trilogy?

The next major MMA event takes place on Saturday night, with UFC 264 live from Las Vegas, Nevada.

The main event features the third and potentially-deciding fight between longtime adversaries Conor McGregor and Dustin Poirier.

As always with a UFC event, there are certainly plenty of bets to be made. Let's take a look at some of them. 

UFC 264 odds for McGregor vs. Poirier 3

Dustin Poirier: 4/5
Conor McGregor: 6/5

(All odds via SBK)

As at Thursday, July 8, SBK has installed Poirier as the slight favourite heading into the big trilogy with McGregor. Bettors can get two-way odds of 4/5 with the bookmakers on a victory for the American, which means you would get £40 winnings on a £50 bet, plus that £50 stake money back. The Irishman, meanwhile, comes in with longer odds at 6/5. A £50 bet would win you an additional £60, should McGregor prevail. Please note that these odds are subject to change between now and fight night.

McGregor won their first meeting via first-round stoppage, but that was back in 2014. When they met again in January of this year, Poirier executed the perfect game plan, neutralizing his foe with leg kicks before going in for the kill and scoring a second-round TKO. Thus, momentum is with 'The Diamond' amid questions regarding whether or not the gifted McGregor prioritizes MMA as much as he used to, after launching a successful whiskey business and making a fortune facing Floyd Mayweather Jr. in a boxing contest.

 

McGregor vs. Poirier 3 prediction

Happe's pick: Conor McGregor

This fight has generated a lot of excitement because of the fireworks delivered by instalments one and two. That they're tied heading into UFC 264 has also made for much more uncertainty among fans with regards to who will win — as a result, the betting market is more intriguing as well.

That they claimed a stoppage each over the other has led to longer odds on fight three going the distance. However, it's also fair to say both men will be extremely wary of getting starched a second time by someone they have very well scouted, so perhaps a more cerebral encounter is upon us. 

Because of this, I'm tempted to stick a few quid on a McGregor win via decision. He had every reason to merely walk away from the sport a rich man with a superb legacy when January did not go his way, and to engineer a trilogy fight suggests he really does still have the drive and desire to put things right.

He should also be able to avoid walking into danger, so to speak, via the Poirier leg-kick strategy that proved his undoing last time out, now that he has seen (and felt it) first-hand. With a more gruelling training camp, additional determination and a more cautious approach, McGregor should be able to get his hand raised.

More McGregor vs. Poirier 3 odds

Will the fight go the distance?

Yes: 3/1
No: 1/5

Method of victory

Poirier by KO/TKO: 2/1
McGregor by KO/TKO: 9/5