The Houston Texans will travel to Arrowhead Stadium to face the Kansas City Chiefs in a high-stakes AFC Divisional Round playoff game.
The Texans may feel confident after dominating the Los Angeles Chargers in the Wild Card round, but they face an uphill task against the Kansas City Chiefs, who have won three of the last five Super Bowls.
DAZN News breaks down three key factors which could prove decisive in the matchup.
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Kansas City Chiefs vs. Houston Texans - Saturday, Jan 11; 4:30pm ET / 9:30pm GMT / 10:30pm CET
Patrick Mahomes vs the Texans’ secondary
The Texans struck gold when they selected cornerback Kamari Lassiter in the second round of the NFL 2024 Draft, pairing one of the most talented young cornerbacks with 2024 All-Pro Derek Stingley Jr.
The duo was instrumental in the Texans’ Wild Card victory over the Los Angeles Chargers. They combined for three interceptions, a pass breakup, and a forced fumble.
(Getty Images)
However, Mahomes excels at spreading the balls to several receivers, so the Texans must also rely on their linebackers and safeties to perform well in pass coverage.
The Chiefs have a distinct advantage in this respect, as the Texans’ linebacker and safeties have struggled in coverage. Look for Chiefs’ future hall-of-fame tight end Travis Kelce to capitalise.
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The Texans’ pass rush vs the Chiefs offensive line
Mahomes has not posted the typically gaudy numbers we are used to seeing. In 2024, he posted the lowest passing yardage and touchdown totals of his career.
The loss of wide receiver Rashee Rice to a season-ending injury in Week 4 undoubtedly affected the effectiveness of the Chiefs’ passing attack.
The Chiefs’ offensive line must also shoulder some of the responsibility as Mahomes has been pressured at a high rate. And, as excellent as Mahomes’ pocket presence is, an unusually high percentage of those pressures have resulted in sacks.
Texans head coach DeMeco Ryans will not overlook that point. He will task his dynamic edge rushers, Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter, to take advantage.
The C.J. Stroud to Nico Collins connection vs Trent Duffie and Co.
Stroud has not emerged as the borderline elite quarterback many expected after an extremely promising rookie campaign in 2023.
His total passing yardage and passing touchdowns have decreased, while his interception rate has increased. Injuries to his receivers have undoubtedly been a contributing factor.
Rob Carr/Getty Images
Wide receiver Nico Collins missed five games in 2024 due to injury, but he still eclipsed 1,000 yards and scored seven touchdowns.
The connection between Stroud and Collins will be as key in this Divisional Round matchup as in the Texans’ demolition of the Los Angeles Chargers in the Wild Card round.
Chiefs’ cornerback Trent McDuffie is as talented as it gets at the position, and while he won’t be shadowing Collins the entire game, he will be integral to the Chiefs’ plans to slow him down.
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Conclusion
If the Texans’ pass rush can get to Mahomes and help Houston build an early lead, and Collins finds open space in the Chiefs secondary, they can turn to an effective ground game led by Joe Mixon to help them achieve an upset.
Still, as much as Mahomes has struggled at times in 2024, it is a well-known fact that he plays his best football during the postseason.
The combination of Mahomes and legendary head coach Andy Reid gives the Chiefs the edge they need to defeat the Texans and advance to their seventh consecutive AFC Championship game.
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