Seventeen weeks into the 2024 NFL season, Sam Darnold was living out a fairy tale with the Minnesota Vikings.
Signed pre-season as a short-term bridge to usher in a new era under rookie quarterback JJ McCarthy – the 10th overall pick in the most recent draft – few expected the former New York Jets and Carolina Panthers man to be long for the Purple and Gold.
Darnold had been one of the more notable draft busts of recent times. Selected third overall by the Jets in 2018, he posted a miserable 13-25 record across three seasons at MetLife Stadium before being shipped off to Carolina, where he was no more successful.
A year spent under influential offensive mastermind Kyle Shanahan with the San Francisco 49ers was a wise move, but he made just one start – another loss – in northern California. So by the time the 27-year-old rocked up to Minnesota, his stock was low.
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He signed a one-year, $10 million deal that he was not expected to outlast.
But then McCarthy suffered a season-ending knee injury in August. Darnold was thrust into an unfamiliar role as the assured starter for a team capable of a deep playoff run. And he thrived.
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He would throw for 4,319 yards – almost 1,300 yards more than his previous career high – and 35 touchdowns. He oversaw 14 wins and brought the Vikings within a game of the one seed in the NFC.
His play was so impressive, his rejuvenation so absolute, that not only was there talk that he could command a new contract in excess of $40 million per year as a free agent but also that the Vikings could consider trading away McCarthy and installing Darnold as their long-term signal caller.
Then came the crash. And it had begun before anyone really appreciated it.
In Week 18, the Vikings visited the Detroit Lions in a one-game playoff for the top seed in the conference. Under pressure all game from the home side’s depleted defense, the Darnold of old made an unwelcome reappearance.
He completed just 43.9 per cent of his passes – down from his season average of 66.9 percent – and threw no touchdowns as Minnesota slumped to a 31-9 loss.
Many onlookers were willing to allow Darnold this blip. Perhaps his mind was already on the post-season.
And then the post-season arrived.
Despite being the road team against the Los Angeles Rams in the wild card round – although the game was played at a neutral site in Arizona, due to the LA fires – the Vikings were heavy favourites.
But Darnold floundered for a second successive week. He was sacked nine times, with the tape revealing many of those to be a result of the quarterback holding on to the ball too long, rather than a breakdown in the offensive line.
He threw one touchdown but turned the ball over twice, with one pick and one fumble. Minnesota lost 27-9.
A Vikings' decision to be made
So what now for Darnold and the Vikings?
From the team’s perspective, their decision over the future of the quarterback position at US Bank Stadium just got a whole lot easier – it belongs to the returning McCarthy.
Their quandary now is a matter of whether to allow Darnold to walk as a free agent, offer him a new deal on terms likely more reflective of a high-end back-up than a Pro Bowl-level starter, or franchise tag him and kick the issue down the road a year.
The franchise tag – which allows teams to retain free agents for a year at a cost calculated from an average of the top five earners in their position – would be an expensive option: likely somewhere in the region of $40 million.
And there is a strong chance any deal they offer to Darnold to remain their bridge option under centre would be beaten by the market, with several quarterback-needy teams around the league and a dearth of available talent at the position.
The loss of a still-capable bridge/back-up quarterback could be mitigated by the presence of Daniel Jones. The 27-year-old joined the Vikings mid-season on a short-term deal after being released by the New York Giants.
Jones’ market value is still lower than Darnold’s. They could offer him a more team-friendly deal to stick around and provide cover for McCarthy next season.
For Darnold, he will still have options around the league. Perhaps even with Jones’ former employers, who are set to pick third overall in a draft class that includes just two solid quarterback prospects.
The Las Vegas Raiders, New Orleans Saints, Cleveland Browns and Pittsburgh Steelers might all be interested, too. His potential salary has likely halved over the last couple of weeks, but there are still starting berths he could slot into.
Or he could attempt to rebuild his stock with another stint as a back-up on a contending team and under a gifted offensive coach.
In that event, the team who wrote the final, damning chapter in his Cinderella story, the Rams, would be the perfect fit.
There, he’d be the No.2 behind 36-year-old Matthew Stafford. And he’d be working with a coach, in Sean McVay, who previously mentored Kevin O’Connell, the Vikings boss who masterminded his best-ever campaign this year.
Whatever the Vikings and the player himself decide to do next, Darnold has lost more than just momentum after turning back into a pumpkin over these last two games.
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