Nobody could have seen this coming. Not even Jayden Daniels’ biggest believers.
Ahead of the 2024 NFL draft, Caleb Williams – who was selected by the Chicago Bears with the first overall pick – was considered to be the can’t-miss quarterback prospect in the class.
Some analysts viewed Daniels as the pick of the passers, but most saw it as a toss-up between the LSU man and Drake Maye – who went third to the New England Patriots – to be considered the best of the rest behind Williams.
There was disagreement among experts over whether his five years of experience as a starter at college level – two with Arizona State and three, including a final Heisman-winning campaign, in Baton Rouge – meant he was primed for NFL production or had little room left for development.
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Sunday, January 26 - Philadelphia Eagles vs. Washington Commanders, 3pm ET / 8pm GMT / 9pm CET
He was also deemed too skinny; a lithe, electric runner, but one whose slight frame would make him vulnerable in the harder-hitting professional game.
It’s now been 10 months since the Washington Commanders chose Daniels with the second pick of the draft, and no one is doubting his credentials anymore.
With the team from the nation’s capital preparing to take on the Philadelphia Eagles for a place in Super Bowl LIX, the statistics, the accolades and the eye test all point toward Daniels being the best rookie quarterback the NFL has ever seen.
“I’m so proud of him,” said the Houston Texans’ second-year quarterback CJ Stroud, who was himself posted an outstanding debut campaign a year ago. “In my opinion, he’s had the best rookie year of all time.”
Some context for what Daniels has done this season: after a 23-20 road win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the Wild Card round, he became just the eighth rookie quarterback in NFL history to win in his first playoff appearance.
After upsetting the Detroit Lions in the divisional round, he became only the second rookie signal caller ever to beat his conference’s number one seed in the playoffs. The other was Joe Flacco on the Baltimore Ravens in 2008. But while Flacco was propped up by an elite defense and won despite only completing 11 passes, Daniels was the driving force behind a 45-31 victory, throwing for 299 yards and two touchdowns while also picking up another 51 yards on the ground.
He is the seventh quarterback to reach a conference championship. And like Flacco, who is one of the other seven, those who have done so in the past – Shaun King of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 1999, Ben Roethlisberger of the 2004 Pittsburgh Steelers, Mark Sanchez on the New York Jets in 2009 and Brock Purdy with the San Francisco 49ers in 2022 – have all been propped up by elite supporting casts.
Roethlisberger, for example, set a record for the most postseason wins by a rookie quarterback, but he did so while throwing five interceptions and just three touchdowns across the Steelers’ playoff run that year.
Over his last two games, Daniels’ only negative play is one sack given up against the Buccaneers. He has zero interceptions and zero fumbles to go with his 567 air yards, four touchdowns and 69.7% pass completion.
He is one victory away from becoming the first rookie quarterback ever to start in a Super Bowl; two from being the first to ever win it. But simply getting to the postseason has been a monumental achievement.
The Commanders finished last season with a 4-13 record, bad enough to earn them the pick that landed Daniels. This season, the oddsmakers in Las Vegas predicted they’d have the fourth-lowest win total in the NFL. Instead, finishing 12-5, only five teams had more wins.
In the regular season, Daniels set rookie quarterback records for completion percentage (69.0%) and rushing yards (891).
But most impressive of all is his coolness under pressure. Washington had the third-best third-down conversion rate in the league in 2024 – behind only the Kansas City Chiefs and Detroit. And they led the league in fourth down conversion rate, earning a new set of downs on an incredible 87% of tries. The Buffalo Bills were a distant second with 72.7%.
In the playoffs, Daniels has a QBR (quarterback rating) on third and fourth downs of 99.1 out of 100.
He plays as though he knows what will unfold before it happens. And that’s because he does … kind of.
Daniels has spoken about how he uses a virtual reality training program to aid his game preparation. Using a VR headset that simulates opposition plays and pressures at 1.75 times normal speed, he rehearses likely outcomes and applies them to real-game scenarios that occur much slower. It’s no wonder he looks like a seasoned veteran.
“He’s a young quarterback by birth certificate, not by the tape,” Vic Fangio, Philadelphia’s defensive coordinator, said this week. “The guy is playing extremely well.
“You can tell how much they think he’s playing so good by the volume of their offense and the things they trust him to do. And he’s come through for them in a big way. He’s tough to handle.”
The 2024 draft class was instantly notable for the sheer volume of offensive talent it contained, with six quarterbacks selected within the top 12 picks. And it will be remembered as one of the finest classes of recent years, with the likes of Las Vegas Raiders tight end Brock Bowers and New York Giants wide receiver Malik Nabers enjoying record-setting rookie terms, in addition to the promise most of its signal callers have shown already.
But even within this talent-packed class, Daniels is an outlier. What he has he achieved as a rookie is not simply rare. It is unprecedented. With a Super Bowl now in reach, he stands on the cusp of entering a historical echelon all of his own.
Nobody saw this coming. Except maybe the Commanders’ Mr Cool.
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