The biggest mixed martial arts promotion in the world returns for the first time in over two months when UFC 249 takes place on Saturday night at VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena in Jacksonville, Fla.
After being postponed from its original date in April and going through some changes due to the coronavirus pandemic, the event finally managed to come together with an interim lightweight title fight between Tony Ferguson and Justin Gaethje and a co-main event that finds Henry Cejudo defending his UFC bantamweight title for the first time against former champion Dominick Cruz.
With MMA action returning for the first time since March, this also becomes the first opportunity for the betting world to sink its teeth into a card that has a great deal of intrigue.
Ferguson vs. Gaethje odds, breakdown
- Tony Ferguson: -190
- Justin Gaethje: +160
(All odds via FanDuel)
Make no mistake, Tony Ferguson (-190) has been on an impressive roll over the past seven years, as he has amassed a UFC record 12-fight winning streak since losing to Michael Johnson back in 2012.
He has evolved as a fighter who showcases impressive durability and conditioning with fantastically quirky grappling and striking that is nearly impossible to prepare for. However, there’s a bit of fool’s gold that comes with Ferguson.
Although a dozen consecutive victories are nothing to sneeze at, it’s not as if Ferguson has been an impenetrable force. There are those who thought Danny Castillo upended him at UFC 177 in 2014, and everyone remembers how Lando Vannata came incredibly close to pulling off a massive upset as a short-notice opponent in 2016.
Sure, he has impressive victories against Donald Cerrone, Anthony Pettis, Kevin Lee, Rafael dos Anjos and Edson Barboza. However, with the exception of Lee, none of those victories were against opponents who were at the peak of their powers.
Justin Gaethje (+160) represents the worst kind of recipe for disaster for Ferguson at UFC 249. An underrated wrestler and devastating striker, Gaethje brings a pair of tools that could be incredibly problematic for Ferguson to deal with. Gaethje learned the hard way that his balls-to-the-wall approach to fighting wouldn’t cut the mustard in the UFC, and back-to-back stoppage losses to Eddie Alvarez and Dustin Poirier made him rethink his approach to fighting.
What we are witnessing now is a more measured approach from the 31-year-old, where he picks his spots and opts not to go to war from the opening bell. He’s still susceptible to leaving himself open during wild exchanges, but when he’s tactfully sound, deploys his devastating leg kicks and slows the fight down, he’s arguably the most dangerous man in the lightweight division.
If it weren’t for the COVID-19 pandemic and relatively short notice, it wouldn’t be a stretch to say that Gaethje, by far, is Ferguson’s most dangerous opponent. Ferguson is susceptible to getting hit and believes in his own striking a little too much. If he has any issue getting his hands around Gaethje, it could prove to be a long and painful night.
If this were an even money fight, it would be easier to go with Ferguson, but Gaethje has a significant set of tools that could put a devastating end to Ferguson’s run. And considering his penchant for ending fights inside the distance, it's highly likely that a Gaethje victory will come inside the distance.
There's absolutely no need to bet on Gathje winning straight up. Instead, go for a prop bet to couple with the pick.
Ferguson vs. Gaethje pick
- Hale's pick: Justin Gaethje via (T)KO
- Best odds: +195
Ferguson vs. Gaethje prop bets
- Ferguson by KO/TKO: +240
- Ferguson by points: +600
- Ferguson by submission: +250
- Draw: +5000
- Gaethje by KO/TKO: +195
- Gaethje by points: +1300
- Gaethje by submission: +3800
Cejudo vs. Cruz odds, breakdown
- Henry Cejudo: -215
- Dominick Cruz: +180
The man who calls himself “Triple C” will test himself against former champion Dominick Cruz as he attempts to defend his UFC bantamweight championship for the first time since claiming the vacant title by defeating Marlon Moraes last June. Considering Henry Cejudo’s run and Cruz’s history of injuries and inactivity, it’s no surprise that Cejudo is a significant favorite at -215.
There are many uncertainties surrounding Dominick Cruz (+180). Not only is he 35 but he’s also coming off of a one-sided loss to Cody Garbrandt in his last outing back in 2016. But Cruz is used to these extended layoffs and still sports an impressive 22-2 MMA record.
While Cejudo is a two-division champion, there are a few concerns. You can’t take anything away from his victory over Moraes, even though he was put through the wringer before the Brazilian ran out of gas in the third round. But there are those who felt he didn’t beat Demetrious Johnson and believe T.J. Dillashaw’s brutal weight cut had more to do with the stunning 32-second knockout than Cejudo.
Cejudo is a brilliant Olympic wrestler with golden accolades and a fully capable striker, but if Cruz is anything close to who he was when he was among the pound-for-pound best in the world, we could have a new champion in the co-main event.
When Cruz lost to Garbrandt, he lost to an opponent with the perfect striking toolset and a Team Alpha Male camp that was dedicated to putting an end to its nemesis. The motivation was significant for Garbrandt, and his boxing background, coupled with his youth, put him over on Cruz.
Cejudo isn’t nearly the striker that Garbrandt is and, while explosive, isn’t exactly the fastest fighter in the division. Cruz’s constant movement and pinpoint striking could keep Cejudo off balance as he tries to find a way to catch the former champion. And if Cejudo can’t pressure Cruz to the fence or wrap his hands around him, he’ll get picked apart over the course of 25 minutes.
There’s also a part of this where you have to wonder if Cejudo is overlooking Cruz. His "cringe" persona appears to be an act, but he’s also been actively targeting bigger names rather than the opponents who are next in line according to the rankings. Cruz is already difficult to prepare for, and if Cejudo isn’t ready, he’ll be watching Cruz dance his way to victory.
Cejudo vs. Cruz pick
Hale's pick: Dominick Cruz by decision
Best odds: +270
Cejudo vs. Cruz prop bets
- Cejudo by KO/TKO: +260
- Cejudo by points: +150
- Cejudo by submission: +1300
- Draw: +5000
- Cruz by KO/TKO: +1100
- Cruz by points: +270
- Cruz by submission: +1500